Trending Mistakes in Mule Strategy

[motorman]

This was going to be a much longer post but I just got a new fuzz pedal and it's time to annoy the neighbors a bit. So here is part one.

I have a conversation with another regular player earlier this week who implied my win percentage was implausible unless I knew "the code" of the game. I understand the skepticism. Understanding that most games of Mule are lost and not won will go a long way to improving your chances of winning.  If mistakes are landmines then these will blow your legs off.

Ditching Mules in Round 1 to Get a High Tite Plot in Round 2:

This is terrible, terrible strategy. Let's say you just discovered a high tite and now you're going to ditch a couple mules (or up to 5 as I've seen more than once) to get it. You just basically cost yourself your first auction. And for what? Let's say I have a medium beside it and we both put out tite for six rounds(very optimistic when one considers ore spikes, food and energy need, etc.) You have made an average of six extra tite over the course of the game versus the production of the plot of land you weren't able to buy. Before you do this ask yourself if you'd rather have about $100 for six turns or a plot. It's the latter.

[mule_be_ok]

I'm not sure I entirely agree with this motor. Burning 5 to get under the auction winner is foolish, but there are certainly plausible scenarios when a round 1 mule burn can pay off. For example, the player who starts in 4th without a round 1 auction can recover from burning 1 to ensure the high.

There are enough "bad player event" scenarios where first and/or second place have a bad event in round 2 that is more damaging than a $125 mule burn in round 1, no?

[motorman]

Firstly, thanks for the input. I'd love to see a healthy debate here. Secondly, here is my rebuttal:

Yes there are plausible scenarios where it can work out but the odds are not in your favor. In fact, I've never played in a game where someone has won using this strategy. If you are basing your strategy on "well maybe this will happen" then you are basing your strategy on luck in a game where there is already a tonne of uncertainty due to the human element.

Also what you are gambling on is a handful of tite over the course of a game which isn't going to make or break you (except in the rare extremely close game.) One of the hugest inefficiencies you can exploit in this game reliably is other players overvaluation of tite. I'd say the largest is the undervaluation of food but I'll get to that in another post. 

I never gamble within the game unless it is my only chance at victory.  In round 8 or 9 when you have clearer idea of how the endgame is going to play out and you think you're going to be in 3rd or 4th is the time to take risks. This all goes back to my central point that most games of mule are lost and not won.

[mule_be_ok]

http://www.planetmule.com/hi-score-game/game/?game_id=112506

Yes I agree that random events can happen. But there's certainly a case to be made with regards to hovering towards the bottom of the pack for the first few rounds.

[Rhodan]

Releasing mules, not catching the wampus, not going into the pub or selling commodities cheap are all valid and very important strategies to use to control your money and rank at the end of each round to get in last place
Being last can pay off tremendously.

Pros

Plot selection is one as already mentioned. But yes releasing to many mules just to get one plot is dangerous!
Winning the tie break for plot auction race.
Being the first to buy goods or the store out(big one if ore is spiking or deny your opponents energy/food.
Being the first to sell your goods
Good events and no bad events.
Being able to watch everyone else develop their plots then change yours to maximize profits.

Cons

Leaving yourself short of money and can't develop your plots
Leaving yourself short of money allowing others to buy plots.

So pros out weighs cons if I haven't forgotten any.

[jagov808]

Obviously the pros and cons must be weighted in a true cost/benefit analysis. The biggest mistake, common in many games of skill, is that intermediate players often try to mimic strategies they see advanced players employing. This rarely works because they do not fully understand the implications of such maneuvers.

Another mistake common to intermediate or the faux-elite (highly ranked players with intermediate skills and heavy volume) is simply not being able to adapt and always following certain general principles regardless of their merit in a particular situation. A good example would be the buying land at any time at any cost which afflicts most people when only 70% of the time this is the right course of action. 

Related to this is the mistake of not changing one's tactics depending upon one's competition. When conducting joint operations such as ore spikes one must assess the ability/willingness of others to help and moderate their greed. The fun of the game is if this is done implicitly, if done explicitly obviously that would be cheating.

There is only one shortcut in this game from noobiness to journeyman level: watch cyber ranger and do the opposite of what he does 90% of the time.

[motorman]

With regards to the pros and cons you have to keep in mind the point of the game that we are discussing (the beginning.)

- Plot selection is definitely a pro.

- Winning the tie break (this isn't going to happen because you aren't going to have the money to compete)

- Being the first to buy the store out (yes you can do this but the spoilage is going to put you further in the hole. This also drives up the price of goods, creating demand that allows players who have purchased plots to recover faster.)

- Being the first to sell your goods (with the limited production in round 2, especially with the trend of taking mountains, the benefit of this is minimal.)

- Good events (yes, a pro, but again you are playing for luck)

- Being able to watch others develop their plots (In round 2 you are limited in what you can put out, so the effect here is minimal as well. Honestly in round 2 you can look at what resources people are bringing into the round and know exactly what they are going to put out regardless of when your turn is.)

Later in the game these are all great pros but if you are the guy who ditched a mule in round 1 and is last to buy a plot you might be spending 2-4 rounds in first for one round of last place.

In regards to mimicking other players: I would honestly encourage this to some extent in newer players. Part of the beauty of Mule is no part of the game is done "behind the scenes." You have the luxury of seeing exactly what a veteran player will do in any situation with complete transparency. I became a better player by following closely the actions of players who were better than me. Of course, once you know the "how," you have to make the mental leap to "why" but there is no better way to learn this game than playing good players.

[jagov808]

Folks this is invaluable insight from one of the game's greats just before his deep decline into depression, Poutine, Ovaltine and Jacques.

[jagov808]

One hopes that this bout of retirement is short-lived so that the masses can heap praise upon sir motorman for all his invaluable and selfless assistance. Truly a remarkable individual we are all lucky to know.