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Big Head Zach
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« on: December 13, 2009, 19:35 » |
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At the start of the game, the goods have the following prices (this is reflected in your Goods/Assets column in the initial Status Report):
Food: $30
Energy: $25
Smithore: $50
Crystite: $100 (doesn't matter but that's what it is)
MULEs: 2x Smithore ($100). The price of MULEs will always be double the price of Smithore.
Every round, there are 2 valuations performed; one right after the Production Phase, and one immediately following the Auction/Trading Phase.*
Pre-Auction Valuation
The game actually performs a number of different calculations for price; players do not see the majority of them because they are being done by the AI, for its own assessment of what price to buy/sell at - so not important right now (and I'm not going to help players take advantage of the AI).
The overall formula applied to each good is:
[NewPrice] = [Current Price] * ( .25 + .75R)
R, simply put, is the ratio of demand of a good, to its supply. Re-written:
[NewPrice] = [Current Price] * ( .25 + .75(D/S))
The (.25 + .75(D/S)) part is important, because it shows how the game (moreover, the Store, since this happens right before the Store gets busy with trading) considers the "voice of reason" with regards to supply and demand. The .25 is the weight given to whatever the current price of the good is at - if players are trading amongst themselves at a price higher than the Store, the Store does abide by it, to an extent.* But it considers the reality of how much of the good is available for use and how much it is needed 3 times as much.
R (or D/S), as already stated, is the ratio of demand to supply. If D > S (shortage), price will go up. If D < S (surplus), price will go down. If D = S, then (.25 + .75(D/S)) = 1, and price remains the same.
What if there is no supply (S = 0)? Rather than divide by zero (thus unmaking the universe), the game uses the result of D/S as S gets increasing close to 0; infinity. However, the game can't raise the price infinitely high, so it pegs it at the maximum price of any good, $250.
But what does the game use to determine supply, and demand? This depends on the good we're looking at:
Food
Supply is the total number of units owned by the Store, the number of units players owned after they ate that round (to fuel their Development time bar) and spoiling half the remainder, and the number of units players produced in the Production Phase. (As a reminder, food carried over from the previous round is first consumed, then any leftovers are reduced by half due to spoilage, then production that round is added.)
Demand is the number of units players will have to eat for the next round in order to have full time bars. In rounds 1-4, each player needs 3 units. In rounds 5-8, 4 units. In rounds 9-12, 5 units. So the demand for food will always be 12, 16, or 20.
Energy
Supply is the total number of units owned by the Store, the number of units players owned after they powered MULEs that round (1 unit / non-Energy MULE) and spoiling 1/3 of the remainder**, and the number of units players produced in the Production Phase. (As a reminder, energy carried over from the previous round is first consumed, then any leftovers are reduced by 1/3 due to spoilage, then production that round is added.)
Demand is the number of units the game expects players will need to power all of their non-Energy MULEs in the next round, + 4. The "+ 4" is the assumption that players will have 4 new plots to install MULEs on (it does not try and guess if extra plots will be available). Near the end of the game, the + 4 may change to less, or not be added at all, once all the land is claimed.
Smithore
Supply is the total number of MULEs in the Corral, plus the number of MULEs it could theoretically make for the next Development phase, with the amount of Smithore it currently has (consuming 2 Smithore per MULE). The MULE manual states that it takes the Store an entire turn to build MULEs, so any Smithore sold during trading cannot be used in this fashion.***
Demand is the number of currently owned plots that do not have MULEs installed, plus the number of plots the game predicts players will acquire in the next round's Land Grant (usually 4, like the above for Energy). This total is hard-limited at 8.
As an additional step for Smithore, the game places a hard limit on the D/S ratio, between 1/4 and 3/1, inclusive. This prevents a complete lack of Smithore (which can happen) from immediately spiking the price in one single turn, or causing it to plummet the next when the inevitable glut of Smithore gets dumped on the store. Food and Energy do not have this limiter.
Crystite
Because Crystite is a luxury mineral (like diamond) and has no practical purpose in the colony, once it is sold to the Store, it's shipped off-world. The price of Crystite is a completely uniform distribution (i.e. random value) between 50 and 150, which changes each turn. You can't buy Crystite for cheap from the Store (but you can from other players...see why you'd want to do this at the bottom.)
Store Setting The Price
Once the ratios are determined, the prices are calculated. All goods have an additional hard limit placed on their minimum price, equal to the starting price of the good (Food 30, Energy 25, Smithore 50).
Smithore gets one additional adjustment to its price after this, which is a variation similar to the variation used when figuring out how much a plot produces. 1/3 of the time, the price does not change. 1/2 the time, the price will rise or fall by 7. 12% of the time, it will rise or fall by 14. 1% of the time, it will rise or fall by 21! (Regardless of this variation, Smithore cannot go below 20.) This variation allows Smithore to still be speculated on even in a stable economy, where MULEs are plentiful.
Now that all the prices are calculated (and adjusted), the Store sets its buy price at $15 less than the current price (except for Smithore and Crystite), and its sell price at $35 more than the current price.
Post-Auction Valuation*
Once the auctions are over, the game updates the value of goods to the average price of those goods that was traded that turn, whether it was to the Store itself, or between other players. This only happens if there was at least one of that good changing hands.
This is a very important step as it reflects the latest market value of all goods, which can affect your score (and therefore your turn order, which is crucial for letting players catch up, and increasing the challenge for the leader).
What Does It All Mean?
Here's some things to consider based on the above information:
1) If you have a monopoly, it does you no good to not sell at all just because no one likes your prices. The pre-auction valuation correctly assumes there's plenty to go around. What you want is the Store to know what the market value is. The way to do that is convince your opponents to buy at least one unit of goods from you. This will update the price post-auction, and improve your score. Additionally, though there may be plenty to go around (it's all yours), the .25 + .75R formula will ensure those prices won't decay immediately, but they will eventually. In order to maintain your dominance, you'll have to continue hard-selling your goods at that inflated price (keeping the post-auction valuation high), by convincing your opponents it's cheaper/more efficient to go through you than to bother re-outfitting one of their MULEs to produce the same good.
2) If a good has an inflated price due to shortage/monopoly, the Store will eventually calm back down once there is sufficent supply...but not immediately. The more "even" the match is between supply and demand (R ~= 1), the less the price will deviate from its current price (which is whatever it's being traded at). This is crucial if you want to establish a reputation as a Food/Energy mogul; create too much, and the Store will call you out on your shenanigans.
3) If you're willing to temporarily switch a MULE to the shorted good, you can get in on the profits and sell to the Store. However, the Store has better storage facilities than players do, so its units never spoil/decay/run out of room. Once the Store has enough to cover things for a while, you'll have a tough time convincing people to pay more - time to go back to making the more-valued commodities (Crystite, and Smithore in the first half of the game).
4) If Crystite is being bought at a price less than $100, and you feel confident Pirates will not strike until the price changes again, consider offering to buy Crystite from others who are more paranoid. You may be able to profit a bit off speculating if you can manage to hold onto it until you can sell it for more than $100. ($100 is an arbitrary middle-point, your mileage may vary.)
5) Similarly, if Smithore is going for under $50 at any point in the game, it's because of the variation mentioned above - meaning it's likely going to change next turn. If you have the spare cash, speculating in Smithore can be a safer (albeit less profitable) investment than Crystite.
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